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What is StoMaster® ?
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From time to time, StoMaster ® will publish fundamental, as well as technically oriented working papers pertinent to the present, or evolving long-term secular bond cycle. For example, "ACT LIKE A GOOSE - FLY SOUTH", the most recent offering cited below, is a technical piece examining the current transition from a bull to a bear market. "THE FED'S 1998 CHRISTMAS WISH" blurbed below is an insightful macro-economics morceau which addressed the evolving bear market of 1998.
The interested reader will find the portfolio of scholarly offerings below, categorized under the rubric of the secular trend then prevailing or anticipated.
2001 BEAR MARKET
 ALERT!! Be sure to read StoMaster's ® timeous squib entitled "ACT LIKE A GOOSE - FLY SOUTH" to be alerted to the demise of the secular bull market of '00-'01 and the genesis of the secular bear market of '01-'02. A MUST read with the tract below in order to appreciate a full peak-to-peak super-cycle |
2000 BULL MARKET
Be sure to read StoMaster's® timely croquis entitled "BE ON THE NORTHBOUND TRAIN" to be apprised of the concluding days of the secular bear market of '98-'00 and the birth of the secular bull market of '00-'01.
Promise for the Millenium you will read
"THE FED'S 1998 CHRISTMAS WISH" [down and dirty vernacular version], a provocative fundamental analysis (even a year later) of potential Fed strategy and some subtilties of international trade which will operate to defuse deflation and pressure the long bond. A great companion piece to the technical analysis view of "The Sto Don't Lie" [Note: This is a .pdf file requiring the Adobe Acrobat plug-in or Reader.] Also available in euphuistic, purple prose at "THE FED'S 1998 CHRISTMAS WISH" [highly stylized literary version] for those who enjoy vocabulary enrichment.
To fully understand why the secular bull market in bonds begun 06/97 officially ended on 11/30/98, and why the bear market of 1999-2000 endured for 15 months, "THE STO DON'T LIE" is a must read. [Note: This
is a .pdf file requiring the Adobe Acrobat plug-in or Reader.]1998 BEAR MARKET
In late March 1997, StoMaster asserted:
Also, check out StoMaster's seminal piece on how a fundamentally changing yield curve will affect the bonds at "A CURVE WITHOUT BEND-THE NEW BOND VIGILANTE FLATLINERS"1997 BULL MARKET
"With the FOMC 03/25 firming of the Fed funds rate by 1/4 % to 5 1/2%, bonds will be hard pressed to find a bid in the near term, not because of the higher interest rate environment, but because this marginal tightening leaves the door open to and, in fact, mandates at least 2 more 1/4% increment bumps. The bond price prognosis would be considerably improved had the Fed raised the funds rate by 3/4%, admittedly a politically infeasible alternative. Nevertheless, had it occurred, the bond vigilantes would be unimputably sanguine in the knowledge that no further firming was contemplated, nor required. In that climate, bonds would have improved as they did on 11/15/94 after the Fed raised the funds rate by 3/4% to 5 1/2% on the heels of four prior marginal tightenings commencing on 02/04/94, with the funds rate at 3%."
For a full analysis, see StoMaster's "THE FED-OUT OF CONTROL"
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